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A Release Date Is Not a Safety Plan: What the October 2026 Prison Reforms Mean for Victims

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The Government has narrowed its October 2026 prison-release reforms, but an important safeguarding gap remains. Domestic-abuse perpetrators are not excluded as a category, and risk cannot be measured by an offence label alone. For affected victims, the immediate priority is obtaining accurate information, meaningful licence conditions and a safety plan that accounts for children and any existing family-court orders.

Updated 4 August 2026. The Government has changed its planned prisoner-release reforms following sustained concern from victims and their representatives. People sentenced for rape, serious child sexual offences and grooming offences are now to be excluded from the new release arrangements, and implementation of the wider scheme has been delayed until 1 October 2026.

That is an important change. It is not, however, the same thing as a complete victim-safety plan. Domestic abuse perpetrators have not been excluded as a category. Nor have all violent, stalking or harassment cases. For the victims who remain affected, the urgent questions are practical: When is the offender likely to be released? Who has assessed the risk to me and my children? What conditions will apply? Who will tell the family court? What happens if those conditions are breached?

A release date is not a safety plan. A tag is not a physical barrier. A licence condition only protects a victim if it is informed by the real pattern of risk, communicated clearly and enforced quickly.

What has the Government announced?

Under the Sentencing Act 2026, a new “Progression Model” changes the earliest release point for some people serving standard determinate sentences in England and Wales. The Government’s announcement of 4 August 2026 says that:

  • the model will now come into force on 1 October 2026, rather than in September;
  • people sentenced for rape, serious child sexual offences and grooming offences will be excluded from the changes;
  • people serving life sentences or extended determinate sentences remain excluded and continue to be subject to the existing release framework, including Parole Board review where applicable;
  • for other standard determinate sentences currently carrying a 40% or 50% automatic release point, the earliest release point may become one third of the sentence;
  • where the existing automatic release point is two thirds, the earliest possible release point may become one half;
  • misconduct in prison may lead to added days and a later release;
  • there is to be a presumption of electronic tagging, tighter supervision and greater use of restriction or exclusion zones; and
  • the Government has announced £10 million for victim support, wider contact with affected victims and a dedicated helpline intended to be available by October.

Release on licence does not erase the sentence. The person serves the remaining part of the sentence in the community subject to licence conditions and may be recalled to prison for breach. But for a victim who had organised their safety, housing, employment, schooling or family-court case around the original release expectation, bringing forward the point of release can still be a profound and destabilising change.

The critical gap: domestic abuse perpetrators are not excluded as a group

The revised exclusions are defined principally by conviction and sentence. Real-world risk is not always so tidy.

A domestic abuse case may result in a conviction for coercive or controlling behaviour, stalking, non-fatal strangulation, assault, criminal damage, harassment or breach of a protective order. The offence on the court record may capture only one part of a much longer pattern of coercion, fixation, surveillance and post-separation abuse. Some perpetrators convicted of domestic-abuse-related offending may therefore remain eligible for an earlier release point, depending on the precise offence, sentence and other statutory exclusions.

On 3 August 2026, Domestic Abuse Commissioner Dame Nicole Jacobs said that the decision not to exclude domestic abuse perpetrators was wrong and placed victims’ lives at risk. Her office noted that protections used in the earlier SDS40 scheme for specified domestic abuse offences—including stalking, controlling or coercive behaviour and non-fatal strangulation—were not carried into the Sentencing Act model. The Commissioner called for thorough pre-release risk assessment and properly resourced probation supervision. Read the Domestic Abuse Commissioner’s statement.

Victims’ Commissioner Claire Waxman OBE has welcomed the October delay but warned that “exclusions alone cannot guarantee victim or public safety”. She has called for effective risk management, meaningful licence conditions, proper supervision and timely, trauma-informed communication. Read the Victims’ Commissioner’s statement.

Why good behaviour in prison is not the same as safety for a victim

Prison conduct is relevant, but it answers a different question from the one a victim needs answered. A person may comply with rules in a controlled environment while continuing to present a targeted risk to a former partner, child or family member on release. Domestic abuse risk can be victim-specific, relationship-specific and heightened by separation, loss of control, family-court proceedings or a perceived grievance.

A sound release plan therefore needs more than a record of prison behaviour. It should draw on information held by police, probation, prisons, domestic abuse services, children’s services and—where lawful and relevant—the family court. It should identify the perpetrator’s pattern, the people and locations at risk, previous breaches, access to children, digital routes of contact and foreseeable trigger points.

What licence conditions can a victim request?

Victims who use the Probation Service’s Victim Contact Scheme can ask for licence conditions relating to themselves or their family. A Victim Liaison Officer can pass those representations to the relevant decision-maker and explain which conditions have been approved. Possible conditions may include:

  • no direct or indirect contact with the victim or specified family members;
  • an exclusion zone around a home, workplace, school, nursery or other necessary location;
  • restrictions on entering a named area;
  • electronic monitoring, where authorised and appropriate;
  • residence at Approved Premises; and
  • other proportionate conditions directed to an identified risk.

A victim may request a condition but does not personally decide the licence. Be precise. “Keep him away from me” is understandable, but a usable representation identifies the people, addresses, routes, schools, workplaces and forms of indirect contact that require protection. If disclosing an address would itself create danger, say so expressly and ask how it can be protected while still informing the exclusion-zone decision.

Suggested wording to send to a Victim Liaison Officer

“Please confirm whether the Sentencing Act 2026 changes affect the offender in my case and the current expected month of release. I wish to make representations about victim-related licence conditions before the licence is finalised. I request no direct or indirect contact with me or the named members of my family, together with exclusion zones covering the locations set out in the attached confidential schedule. Please confirm who is assessing the risk, whether my information has been included in that assessment, which conditions are approved, when they begin and end, and how I should report a suspected breach.”

Seven steps to take if you receive an early-release letter

  1. Do not assume the first letter is the final position. Keep every letter and email. Ask in writing whether the 4 August exclusions change the position in your case and request the current expected release month.
  2. Contact your Victim Liaison Officer promptly. Check that the Probation Service holds safe, current contact details. Say how and when it is safe to contact you. If you previously opted out of the Victim Contact Scheme, you can ask to opt back in while the offender is serving the sentence.
  3. Make written representations about licence conditions. Identify no-contact requirements, exclusion zones and risks to children or other family members. Explain previous breaches, stalking, threats, weapon use, strangulation, surveillance, third-party contact or attempts to use court proceedings as a route back into your life.
  4. Ask for a multi-agency safety plan. If you have an IDVA, ISVA, stalking advocate, social worker or police contact, tell them about the proposed release. Ask what information has been shared with probation and what you should do if the offender appears, contacts you or uses another person to make contact.
  5. Review every protective order and its expiry date. A criminal restraining order, licence condition, non-molestation order and child arrangements order are separate legal instruments. They may protect different people, prohibit different conduct and end on different dates. Do not assume that one fills a gap left by another.
  6. Tell the family court and Cafcass if children may be affected. In ongoing proceedings, notify the court promptly and consider an application for urgent directions. If proceedings have ended, legal advice may be needed about an urgent application to vary or suspend child arrangements. More detail appears below.
  7. Report breaches; do not investigate them yourself. If there is immediate danger, call 999. Preserve messages, screenshots, call logs, doorbell footage and witness details. Report suspected licence breaches to the appropriate probation contact and report criminal conduct or immediate risk to the police.

What if there is a child arrangements order?

Release from prison does not automatically grant, restore, suspend or vary child contact. It also does not automatically vary an existing child arrangements order. The family court must make its own welfare-based assessment, applying the Children Act 1989 and, where domestic abuse is alleged or established, Practice Direction 12J.

Where release creates a new or increased risk, practical options may include:

  • in ongoing children proceedings, using Form C2 to request an urgent order or directions, where appropriate;
  • where proceedings have concluded, using Form C100 to apply to vary or discharge a child arrangements order;
  • filing Form C1A to set out harm or risk of harm to a child or adult;
  • asking the court to consider urgent interim arrangements, such as suspension, indirect contact or professionally supervised contact, if supported by the evidence and necessary for safety;
  • asking for relevant information from police or probation to be obtained through proper court directions rather than relying on assertion or incomplete correspondence; and
  • using Form C8 where contact details need to be withheld from another party.

Urgent and without-notice children applications are exceptional and the correct route depends on the procedural position. HMCTS publishes specific guidance on urgent child-arrangements hearings. If an existing order cannot safely operate because of a genuinely immediate risk, obtain urgent legal advice and place the issue before the court as quickly as possible. Do not treat an internet article as a substitute for advice on whether a particular order must be followed in the circumstances.

Can a victim seek a protective injunction?

A person who is eligible under the Family Law Act 1996 may apply for a non-molestation order to protect themselves or a relevant child from abuse or harassment. An occupation order can regulate occupation of the family home. Applications use Form FL401. In a qualifying urgent case, the court can consider an application without notice to the respondent.

There is no court fee for an FL401 application. Legal aid may be available for protection from domestic abuse and for some related private family-law cases, subject to the rules on evidence, scope and financial eligibility. See the Government’s domestic abuse legal-aid guidance.

What evidence should be assembled?

A short, organised evidence pack is more useful than a mass of unstructured material. Consider keeping:

  • the sentencing result, sentencing remarks or judgment, if available;
  • all release-date and Victim Contact Scheme correspondence;
  • the name and contact details of the Victim Liaison Officer and other professionals;
  • copies of restraining orders, non-molestation orders, occupation orders and child arrangements orders;
  • a concise chronology of incidents, threats, breaches and safeguarding concerns;
  • police incident or crime-reference numbers;
  • relevant messages, call logs, screenshots and third-party contact;
  • school, medical, social-care or specialist-support evidence, where relevant and lawfully obtained; and
  • a clear schedule of the licence conditions and exclusion zones requested, with reasons.

Keep fact, concern and request separate. For example: “On 12 June he contacted me through X despite the restraining order” is a fact capable of evidence. “I believe the risk is escalating because…” is an assessment. “I ask for an exclusion zone covering…” is the protective request. That structure makes it easier for probation, police and the court to act.

The wider lesson: justice systems must be designed around the person at risk

The prison-capacity crisis is real. So is the risk of system failure if courts cannot remand or imprison dangerous offenders. But presenting prison capacity and victim safety as competing abstractions misses the operational issue. The question is whether reform has been designed end-to-end—from sentence and release calculation through probation, victim notification, safeguarding, family-court coordination and enforcement.

The October delay creates a narrow implementation window. Success should not be measured only by the number of prison places released. It should also be measured by whether every affected victim was reached safely, whether their information changed the risk assessment, whether appropriate conditions were in place before release, whether agencies knew who would act on a breach, and whether children’s arrangements were reviewed where necessary.

Victim communication is not a courtesy added after the policy decision. It is part of public protection.

Frequently asked questions

Are all prisoners being released after one third of their sentence?

No. The changes apply to particular standard determinate sentences and are subject to statutory exclusions and the prisoner’s conduct. Different sentence types have different release rules. Ask the Victim Liaison Officer to explain the position in the individual case.

Are rape and child sexual offenders included?

The Government announced on 4 August 2026 that rape, serious child sexual and grooming offences will be excluded from the new Progression Model changes. The exact legal implementation and offence schedule should be checked once the necessary legislation or regulations are published.

Are domestic abuse offenders excluded?

Not as a category. Some may be excluded for another legal reason, such as sentence type or an excluded offence, but other domestic-abuse-related offenders may fall within the new model. Eligibility must be checked case by case.

Can I ask to be told the exact release date and address?

The Victim Contact Scheme provides specified information at key stages, but victims are not necessarily entitled to every operational detail. The published scheme says a victim can choose to be told the month of release and can be informed about agreed victim-related licence conditions. Ask your Victim Liaison Officer what can safely and lawfully be disclosed in your case.

Can I insist on a no-contact condition or exclusion zone?

You can make representations and request conditions relating to you or your family. The responsible authority decides whether each condition is necessary and proportionate. Give specific evidence and reasons, and ask to be told what has been agreed.

What happens if the offender breaches licence conditions?

A licence breach can lead to recall to prison. Conduct may also amount to a separate criminal offence or breach of a court order. Do not confront the offender. Preserve evidence, follow the reporting plan given by probation and contact police immediately if there is danger or suspected criminal conduct.

Does release mean a parent can immediately resume contact with a child?

No. Release does not itself create or restore child contact and does not alter an existing family-court order. Any contact must be lawful under the relevant family and criminal orders and consistent with licence conditions. If circumstances have materially changed, an urgent family-court application may be necessary.

Who can I contact now?

If you have received contact from someone in prison or are worried about release, the current HMPPS Victim Helpline is 0300 060 6699 and victim.helpline@justice.gov.uk. The Government has said that a further dedicated helpline for people affected by the 2026 reforms will be available by October.

Support and urgent help

How JSH Law can help

JSH Law supports litigants in person to turn complex histories into clear, court-ready material. Where a proposed release affects family proceedings or protective arrangements, we can help you organise the relevant orders and correspondence, prepare a focused chronology, identify the evidence needed, and structure the issues and urgent requests for the court. The correct legal route depends on the facts, the orders already in force and whether proceedings remain open.

This article provides general information about the law and procedure in England and Wales as at 4 August 2026. It is not legal advice. Sentencing and release rules are technical and may change as the Government implements its announcement. If you or a child is at immediate risk, call 999.

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